Remember 411 Iliana? The house that's sat on the market at $998k for over a year? The owner took the house off the market, relisting it under a new MLS the next day, giving them a new DOM. The price on the new listing was still $998k, but five days later, they got an offer, and it closed on the 11th! The final price? $983,000!
The seller finally found their sucker. I can't believe it. I have to admit, I'm in total shock on this one. The house was nice, sure, but this buyer just guaranteed that if they want to sell, it's going to take a near miracle to unload it quickly, or at least a hefty price cut. I wonder if the buyer knew about the house's history? Do they really believe that house just came on the market? Did their agent ever bother to bring up the fact that they might have some negotiating room? Gosh, I wish I could talk to these people, I'd love to know the story.
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Thursday, November 8, 2007
Motivated?
507 N Kainalu Dr
Beds: 3
Baths: 2
Sq.Ft.: 1,254
Land; 10,055
Price: $977,000
What caught my eye was the innovative pricing strategy combined with this note in the description: "EXTREMELY MOTIVATED SELLER!" Really? Then why did they RAISE the price?
The seller bought this place for $835,000 in August, 2006. 5 months later, in January, 2007, they put the house back on the market, so it looks like a flip. The MLS says nothing about the occupancy status for this place, but judging by the excessive use of patio furniture I see in the pictures, I'd say it's vacant.
As for the pricing strategy...
Jan 19, 2007, $959,000
Feb 21, 2007, $949,000
May 14, 2007, $939,000
July 5, 2007, $937,000
Oct 13, 2007, $987,000 50k Price INCREASE
Oct 27, 2007, $977,000
Somehow a seller raising the price over what they were originally asking does not look extremely motivated to me.
Beds: 3
Baths: 2
Sq.Ft.: 1,254
Land; 10,055
Price: $977,000
What caught my eye was the innovative pricing strategy combined with this note in the description: "EXTREMELY MOTIVATED SELLER!" Really? Then why did they RAISE the price?
The seller bought this place for $835,000 in August, 2006. 5 months later, in January, 2007, they put the house back on the market, so it looks like a flip. The MLS says nothing about the occupancy status for this place, but judging by the excessive use of patio furniture I see in the pictures, I'd say it's vacant.
As for the pricing strategy...
Jan 19, 2007, $959,000
Feb 21, 2007, $949,000
May 14, 2007, $939,000
July 5, 2007, $937,000
Oct 13, 2007, $987,000 50k Price INCREASE
Oct 27, 2007, $977,000
Somehow a seller raising the price over what they were originally asking does not look extremely motivated to me.
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
Fun with numbers
I was reading the Honolulu Board of Realtors report for October 2007, and I came across this statistic:
Number of homes sold in October, 2007: 12
Number of homes sold in October, 2006: 25
Median price of homes sold in October, 2007: $759,500
Median price of homes sold in October, 2006: $995,000
Holy cow, what a difference.
Just for fun, I dug up the numbers for Kailua only, this is what the October 2007 sell prices were:
2,250,000
705,000
670,000
680,000
520,000
775,000
860,000
623,000
779,000
3,310,000
770,000
And for October 2006:
560,000
620,000
685,000
995,000
435,000
1,300,000
875,000
995,000
835,500
1,000,000
1,230,000
700,000
876,000
990,000
955,000
1,040,000
585,000
1,198,000
1,275,000
1,566,000
1,000,000
797,500
898,000
599,000
869,000
3,300,000
Now for some reason, I found 26 houses sold for October 2006, in Kailua alone, while the BOR stats list only 25 for both Kailua and Waimanalo combined. I have no idea what's going on there. Still, the numbers are interesting. Look at all those houses over a million each last year. This year, they aren't over a million unless they're WAY over a million. It looks like the higher end of the market has disappeared for all but the truly wealthy.
Number of homes sold in October, 2007: 12
Number of homes sold in October, 2006: 25
Median price of homes sold in October, 2007: $759,500
Median price of homes sold in October, 2006: $995,000
Holy cow, what a difference.
Just for fun, I dug up the numbers for Kailua only, this is what the October 2007 sell prices were:
2,250,000
705,000
670,000
680,000
520,000
775,000
860,000
623,000
779,000
3,310,000
770,000
And for October 2006:
560,000
620,000
685,000
995,000
435,000
1,300,000
875,000
995,000
835,500
1,000,000
1,230,000
700,000
876,000
990,000
955,000
1,040,000
585,000
1,198,000
1,275,000
1,566,000
1,000,000
797,500
898,000
599,000
869,000
3,300,000
Now for some reason, I found 26 houses sold for October 2006, in Kailua alone, while the BOR stats list only 25 for both Kailua and Waimanalo combined. I have no idea what's going on there. Still, the numbers are interesting. Look at all those houses over a million each last year. This year, they aren't over a million unless they're WAY over a million. It looks like the higher end of the market has disappeared for all but the truly wealthy.
Friday, September 28, 2007
This makes me smile
167 Makawao St
MLS: 2703131
Living Area: 2,179
Land: 10,039
Beds: 4
Baths: 3
Price: 999,000
Occupancy: Vacant
This place reeks of desperation for a flipper. Said flipper bought this house for $950,000 in May, 2005. It was described as "Older home needs some TLC and fixing-up." Its living area back then was 2,070.
Three months later in August, 2005, the house reappeared on the market at... I can't believe this... $1,395,000. What could you possibly do to a house in three months that would justify an extra $445k? The house was completely remodeled, and apparently had some footage added on, but dang, it was remodeled, not rebuilt. Yet, the house sat vacant and on the market for 271 days during which the price dropped gradually to $1,150,000. It was withdrawn on May 27th, 2006.
On May 29th, 2006, the place is relisted at $1,150,000, sits for just 21 days with no price adjustment, and is then withdrawn. This is in spite of the description proclaiming "SUPER DEAL!! BEST BUY IN KALAMA TRACT!!" Apparently not.
So the house is listed yet again under the current MLS on February, 2007 at $1,249,000. Yeah, I didn't see that coming, you'd think I'd learn by now. If it doesn't sell the first time, the logical thing to do is raise the price. Someday I'll get the hang of how that works. So, predictably, the house has been on the market for another 230+ days. Yes it's still vacant. Over time, they've lowered the price to the current $999,000.
While at 230 days, this house has been on the market under this MLS longer than 80% of the other houses active in Kailua, if you look at the cumulative total, the owner's been trying to unload this for over 500 days, and that's not including the periods where it wasn't active. My apologies for the run-on sentence, but I'm too lazy to rephrase right now.
Update (1/16/08):
Still on the market at 999k. Appears to be rented.
MLS: 2703131
Living Area: 2,179
Land: 10,039
Beds: 4
Baths: 3
Price: 999,000
Occupancy: Vacant
This place reeks of desperation for a flipper. Said flipper bought this house for $950,000 in May, 2005. It was described as "Older home needs some TLC and fixing-up." Its living area back then was 2,070.
Three months later in August, 2005, the house reappeared on the market at... I can't believe this... $1,395,000. What could you possibly do to a house in three months that would justify an extra $445k? The house was completely remodeled, and apparently had some footage added on, but dang, it was remodeled, not rebuilt. Yet, the house sat vacant and on the market for 271 days during which the price dropped gradually to $1,150,000. It was withdrawn on May 27th, 2006.
On May 29th, 2006, the place is relisted at $1,150,000, sits for just 21 days with no price adjustment, and is then withdrawn. This is in spite of the description proclaiming "SUPER DEAL!! BEST BUY IN KALAMA TRACT!!" Apparently not.
So the house is listed yet again under the current MLS on February, 2007 at $1,249,000. Yeah, I didn't see that coming, you'd think I'd learn by now. If it doesn't sell the first time, the logical thing to do is raise the price. Someday I'll get the hang of how that works. So, predictably, the house has been on the market for another 230+ days. Yes it's still vacant. Over time, they've lowered the price to the current $999,000.
While at 230 days, this house has been on the market under this MLS longer than 80% of the other houses active in Kailua, if you look at the cumulative total, the owner's been trying to unload this for over 500 days, and that's not including the periods where it wasn't active. My apologies for the run-on sentence, but I'm too lazy to rephrase right now.
Update (1/16/08):
Still on the market at 999k. Appears to be rented.
How small can you go?
626A Auwai St
MLS 2717611
Living Area: 640
Land: 5000
Beds: 2
Baths: 1
Price: 599,000
I'm sorry, but 599k for a 640 square foot CPR with 5000 lot? You've got to be kidding me! To top it off, it's not exactly in the "nice" part of town. My question... How exactly do you fit two bedrooms into 640 square feet?
Update:
Sold on 12/31/07 for $562,500.
MLS 2717611
Living Area: 640
Land: 5000
Beds: 2
Baths: 1
Price: 599,000
I'm sorry, but 599k for a 640 square foot CPR with 5000 lot? You've got to be kidding me! To top it off, it's not exactly in the "nice" part of town. My question... How exactly do you fit two bedrooms into 640 square feet?
Update:
Sold on 12/31/07 for $562,500.
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
If at first you don't succeed...
270 Kahako St.
MLS: 2717325
The year-long history, past to present:
MLS: 2617126
September 14, 2006: Active at $1,149,000
March 15, 2007: Expired
MLS: 2706022
March 24, 2007: Active at $1,188,000
July 17, 2007: Price drop to $1,149,000
September 23, 2007: Expired
MLS: 2717325 (current)
September 23, 2007: Active at $1,149,000
Now that's stubborn. Don't you love the price increase between the first and second listings?
Update (1/16/08):
Still on the market, although under yet another MLS. Listed at $1,088,000 and sitting vacant.
MLS: 2717325
The year-long history, past to present:
MLS: 2617126
September 14, 2006: Active at $1,149,000
March 15, 2007: Expired
MLS: 2706022
March 24, 2007: Active at $1,188,000
July 17, 2007: Price drop to $1,149,000
September 23, 2007: Expired
MLS: 2717325 (current)
September 23, 2007: Active at $1,149,000
Now that's stubborn. Don't you love the price increase between the first and second listings?
Update (1/16/08):
Still on the market, although under yet another MLS. Listed at $1,088,000 and sitting vacant.
Delusional Seller
41- 648 Mekia St (Waimanalo)
MLS: 2707185
Went on the market April 13th at $435,000. It has since dropped to $409,000. Why is this seller delusional? Well for one thing the house is only 720 sq. ft. and the land is 2,310 sq.ft. Heck, there are houses bigger than that lot. To top it off, this seller has fished this house on the market two other times over the last year. At lower prices!
On July 25th, 2006, they put it on the market at $407k, dropped it to $390k a week and a half later, and then withdrew it two weeks after that, not even a month after it initially went active.
On September 26th, 2006, it came up under a new MLS at $419k. Why they thought it would sell at a price higher than what it failed to sell for a month earlier, I'm not sure. They dropped it to $409k on October 9th, and then withdrew it again on October 31st. At least this time they made it to a month before going inactive.
My guess is that the owner needed to sell, but really didn't want to, and now circumstances have forced the issue. This would explain the earlier short T.O.M. and the current staying power.
Update: The dropped the price back to their previous record low of $390k on Sept. 27th. Anyone want to place bets on what will happen next?
Update (1/17/08):
Sold on 12/10/07 for $384,000.
MLS: 2707185
Went on the market April 13th at $435,000. It has since dropped to $409,000. Why is this seller delusional? Well for one thing the house is only 720 sq. ft. and the land is 2,310 sq.ft. Heck, there are houses bigger than that lot. To top it off, this seller has fished this house on the market two other times over the last year. At lower prices!
On July 25th, 2006, they put it on the market at $407k, dropped it to $390k a week and a half later, and then withdrew it two weeks after that, not even a month after it initially went active.
On September 26th, 2006, it came up under a new MLS at $419k. Why they thought it would sell at a price higher than what it failed to sell for a month earlier, I'm not sure. They dropped it to $409k on October 9th, and then withdrew it again on October 31st. At least this time they made it to a month before going inactive.
My guess is that the owner needed to sell, but really didn't want to, and now circumstances have forced the issue. This would explain the earlier short T.O.M. and the current staying power.
Update: The dropped the price back to their previous record low of $390k on Sept. 27th. Anyone want to place bets on what will happen next?
Update (1/17/08):
Sold on 12/10/07 for $384,000.
Saturday, September 22, 2007
Stubborn
You know how in a recent post I mentioned how someone went from a realtor to Help-U-Sell? Well here's a house where they should consider going the other way.
1423 Akamai Pl
2717172
This was on the market as 2712943. They had listed it on July 10, 2007 at $769,000. On August 14th, they dropped to $719,000. They've held to that price until the listing expired a little over a month later on September 20th. It was relisted the same day. Want to guess for how much? That's right, $719,000. Now if the house didn't sell for that during the "busy months" of summer, why would it sell for that now? Perhaps if a sucker comes along thinking this house just came on the market. Granted, that sucker would need to not notice the elementary school in their backyard and the 5,782 lot size, or that the house itself is just 1,026 sq. ft.
Update: This was withdrawn on October 9th. It's also sitting vacant.
1423 Akamai Pl
2717172
This was on the market as 2712943. They had listed it on July 10, 2007 at $769,000. On August 14th, they dropped to $719,000. They've held to that price until the listing expired a little over a month later on September 20th. It was relisted the same day. Want to guess for how much? That's right, $719,000. Now if the house didn't sell for that during the "busy months" of summer, why would it sell for that now? Perhaps if a sucker comes along thinking this house just came on the market. Granted, that sucker would need to not notice the elementary school in their backyard and the 5,782 lot size, or that the house itself is just 1,026 sq. ft.
Update: This was withdrawn on October 9th. It's also sitting vacant.
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Not gonna happen
This one's a little different. It's not so much as house as land, and it's in the nearby community of Waimanalo.
41-820 Mahailua St
MLS: 2712173
It has a 780 sq. ft. house on it, but the land is 34.5 acres. They're asking $1,200,000. This sounds too good to be true, so of course it is. The land is leasehold ag-land. The lease is $2,192/month, it expires 09-11-2021 with a renegotiation in 04-27-2009.
Let's do the math. Assuming you can get a mortgage for a leasehold property that expires in 14 years, I doubt that they would let you do a mortgage that goes beyond the date you lose the lease. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
If it's possible to do a 15 year mortgage, and you put down 20%, your mortgage payments would be roughly $8,495 (calculated on bankrate.com). Add in the lease payment and taxes and you're paying $11,051 a month, and that's only until April 2009 when the lease renegotiates. That'd have to be one hell of an agricultural business to make that payment.
Still, there are a number of unknowns here, I'm not familiar with the intricacies of leasehold properties and their financing.
Update Withdrawn on 10/16/07
41-820 Mahailua St
MLS: 2712173
It has a 780 sq. ft. house on it, but the land is 34.5 acres. They're asking $1,200,000. This sounds too good to be true, so of course it is. The land is leasehold ag-land. The lease is $2,192/month, it expires 09-11-2021 with a renegotiation in 04-27-2009.
Let's do the math. Assuming you can get a mortgage for a leasehold property that expires in 14 years, I doubt that they would let you do a mortgage that goes beyond the date you lose the lease. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
If it's possible to do a 15 year mortgage, and you put down 20%, your mortgage payments would be roughly $8,495 (calculated on bankrate.com). Add in the lease payment and taxes and you're paying $11,051 a month, and that's only until April 2009 when the lease renegotiates. That'd have to be one hell of an agricultural business to make that payment.
Still, there are a number of unknowns here, I'm not familiar with the intricacies of leasehold properties and their financing.
Update Withdrawn on 10/16/07
How many?
1405 Akamai St
MLS: 2712381
beds: 6
baths: 2
House: 1,442
Land: 6,678
Price: $818,000
How exactly do you fit 6 bedrooms into a 1,442 sq. ft. house? And since when is 6,678 sq. ft. a large yard? Even by Kailua standards that's on the small side.
Update (1/17/08)
Still active. Price reduced to $730,000.
MLS: 2712381
beds: 6
baths: 2
House: 1,442
Land: 6,678
Price: $818,000
How exactly do you fit 6 bedrooms into a 1,442 sq. ft. house? And since when is 6,678 sq. ft. a large yard? Even by Kailua standards that's on the small side.
Update (1/17/08)
Still active. Price reduced to $730,000.
Another realtor down
276 Hamakua Dr
MLS: 2717068
Disclaimer: I have NOT seen this house, I just thought the listing was interesting.
This house has been on the market since February, 2007, so over 200 days at the time of this post. It was just relisted, it was MLS 2703209 before.
Apparently, these owners have decided they can do a better job on their own than with a realtor, as they switched to Help-U-Sell. Who could blame them? Here was the previous realtor's description, completed with random capitalizations and spelling errors, as always:
"M-A-K-E O-F-F-E-R! BONUES! INCLUDES BEAUTIFUL FURNITURE! MOTIVATED SELLERS! PRICE REDUCED AGAIN! 2Br/1Ba Upfront-2Br/1Ba in Back With Private Entry! Home Offers Tremendous Versatility! Beautifully Renovated & Landscaped! Plantations Shutters! Over 2,200sq.ft. of Living Space! Double Enclosed Garage! Split A/C! Not Your Ordinary 4 BR Home! Don't Miss This Beauty! EASY TO SHOW!"
200 days on the market, and you can't be bothered to check the spelling of "Bonus?" Also, how many people buying a new house really want to deal with the previous owner's stuff? I would prefer a price cut and a promise of an empty house at closing.
You want the new description?
"Absolutely the best value in Enchanted Lake! Over 2,200 sq. ft. of living area. Spectacular renovations and landscaping. Home features many extras and upgrades. A must see property."
Not the best I've seen, but I think it's a vast improvement over the last one. At least they used spell check, didn't capitalize the start of each word, or end all sentences with an exclamation point.
As for the "best value" bit, I find that unlikely given the location on a large busy road, but as I said, I haven't seen the house. I also wish people would stay away from the "must see" phrase, I've seen this phrase on listings for tear-downs.
Update: This listing was withdrawn on October 22nd.
MLS: 2717068
Disclaimer: I have NOT seen this house, I just thought the listing was interesting.
This house has been on the market since February, 2007, so over 200 days at the time of this post. It was just relisted, it was MLS 2703209 before.
Apparently, these owners have decided they can do a better job on their own than with a realtor, as they switched to Help-U-Sell. Who could blame them? Here was the previous realtor's description, completed with random capitalizations and spelling errors, as always:
"M-A-K-E O-F-F-E-R! BONUES! INCLUDES BEAUTIFUL FURNITURE! MOTIVATED SELLERS! PRICE REDUCED AGAIN! 2Br/1Ba Upfront-2Br/1Ba in Back With Private Entry! Home Offers Tremendous Versatility! Beautifully Renovated & Landscaped! Plantations Shutters! Over 2,200sq.ft. of Living Space! Double Enclosed Garage! Split A/C! Not Your Ordinary 4 BR Home! Don't Miss This Beauty! EASY TO SHOW!"
200 days on the market, and you can't be bothered to check the spelling of "Bonus?" Also, how many people buying a new house really want to deal with the previous owner's stuff? I would prefer a price cut and a promise of an empty house at closing.
You want the new description?
"Absolutely the best value in Enchanted Lake! Over 2,200 sq. ft. of living area. Spectacular renovations and landscaping. Home features many extras and upgrades. A must see property."
Not the best I've seen, but I think it's a vast improvement over the last one. At least they used spell check, didn't capitalize the start of each word, or end all sentences with an exclamation point.
As for the "best value" bit, I find that unlikely given the location on a large busy road, but as I said, I haven't seen the house. I also wish people would stay away from the "must see" phrase, I've seen this phrase on listings for tear-downs.
Update: This listing was withdrawn on October 22nd.
Higher offers
814 Kaipii St
MLS: 2711068
Living Area: 2,288
Land: 4,000
Beds: 4
Baths: 3
Price: 750,000
Description (copy and pasted, the many typos and grammatical errors are not mine):
"BOM, drastic price reduction, now $750,000! Must be sold this week in 'AS IS' condition . Unbelivable price! House shows like a model, we've had much higher offers that didn't work. This is a special circumstance that seller has advised to reduce the price this low. Sellers loss your gain."
Here's the MLS history:
Date Field Name Old Value New Value
June 7, 2007, 4:55 pm Status Not Listed Active
July 13, 2007, 1:56 pm Status Active In Escrow
August 2, 2007, 9:15 am Status In Escrow Active
August 8, 2007, 2:01 pm Price $821,000 $799,500
September 5, 2007, 4:24 pm Price $799,500 $789,500
September 17, 2007, 2:22 pm Price $789,500 $750,000
I love the bit about "much higher offers that didn't work." Perhaps the price is why it didn't work. Maybe the house didn't appraise, it would explain the subsequent price drop. Also, how are past offers remotely relevant? I've seen many houses sell for prices where I thought "Well, it only takes one idiot." Just because one person is willing to pay an obscene amount doesn't mean it's really worth that. To top it off, that was two months ago, before the credit crunch, and values are slipping.
I wish I could get the past sales information on this one. Somehow I'm not convinced the seller will be taking much of a loss.
Update (10/1/07): This house went into escrow on September 28th. I'm looking forward to see what it sells for. 750k for a large house in a decent neighborhood in Kailua isn't bad (relatively), but given the small lot and the seller's desperation, the buyer would be a fool to not push for a huge bargain.
Update #2 (10/26/07) It fell out of escrow and is now listed for $740,000. It's October 26th, and the listing still claims the house must be sold "this week."
Update #3 (1/17/08): Back in escrow after a price increase to $745,000.
MLS: 2711068
Living Area: 2,288
Land: 4,000
Beds: 4
Baths: 3
Price: 750,000
Description (copy and pasted, the many typos and grammatical errors are not mine):
"BOM, drastic price reduction, now $750,000! Must be sold this week in 'AS IS' condition . Unbelivable price! House shows like a model, we've had much higher offers that didn't work. This is a special circumstance that seller has advised to reduce the price this low. Sellers loss your gain."
Here's the MLS history:
Date Field Name Old Value New Value
June 7, 2007, 4:55 pm Status Not Listed Active
July 13, 2007, 1:56 pm Status Active In Escrow
August 2, 2007, 9:15 am Status In Escrow Active
August 8, 2007, 2:01 pm Price $821,000 $799,500
September 5, 2007, 4:24 pm Price $799,500 $789,500
September 17, 2007, 2:22 pm Price $789,500 $750,000
I love the bit about "much higher offers that didn't work." Perhaps the price is why it didn't work. Maybe the house didn't appraise, it would explain the subsequent price drop. Also, how are past offers remotely relevant? I've seen many houses sell for prices where I thought "Well, it only takes one idiot." Just because one person is willing to pay an obscene amount doesn't mean it's really worth that. To top it off, that was two months ago, before the credit crunch, and values are slipping.
I wish I could get the past sales information on this one. Somehow I'm not convinced the seller will be taking much of a loss.
Update (10/1/07): This house went into escrow on September 28th. I'm looking forward to see what it sells for. 750k for a large house in a decent neighborhood in Kailua isn't bad (relatively), but given the small lot and the seller's desperation, the buyer would be a fool to not push for a huge bargain.
Update #2 (10/26/07) It fell out of escrow and is now listed for $740,000. It's October 26th, and the listing still claims the house must be sold "this week."
Update #3 (1/17/08): Back in escrow after a price increase to $745,000.
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
State your intentions
411 Iliaina St.
MLS: 2706902
This is a perfectly nice house, in a decent neighborhood. But it's just not selling. When you look into the story, things get interesting. The house sold in July, 2005 for $620k. The owner tore it down and built the new 2 story home in the photo. Nine months later, they put it back on the market at $1.2M. The house is quite nice, it has a beautiful kitchen, granite all over the place, and nice decks. Many of the rooms are rather small though.
Here's the history:
MLS: 2511621, July 10, 2005 SOLD $620,000
MLS: 2607306 (on market for 61 days, no price changes, withdrawn)
April 14, 2006 Active $1,200,000
June 13, 2006 Withdrawn
MLS: 2611222 (on market for 120 days, expired)
June 12, 2006 Active $1,199,000
July 3, 2006 Price $1,199,000 $1,139,000
July 20, 2006 Price $1,139,000 $1,099,000
August 9, 2006 Price $1,099,000 $1,049,000
September 5, 2006 Price $1,049,000 $999,000
October 11, 2006 Status Expired
MLS: 2706902 (current listing, on market for 157 days, no price change)
April 9, 2007 Active $998,000
Now this house has been on the market for a total of 330+ days, not counting the 6 month break in between the most recent listing and the prior one. Given the flipper has been holding fast to $998k for almost a year, I'm guessing he's at the break-even point. To go any lower likely means taking a loss.
If the assumption is correct, the flipper is likely facing a hefty monthly payment. At purchase time, interest rates were ~5.5%. To make the math easy, we'll assume one loan at 5.5% instead of factoring in a possible construction loan or 2nd mortgage. Even if they put down 20% of the final $1M (unlikely), they're looking at a monthly outlay of $4542/mo + 315/mo in taxes = $4857.
If they financed it all back in the day of easy credit, they're looking at $5,678/month + taxes = $5993. The house is currently rented at $4100, so they're looking at a ~$1900 loss per month at full financing or $757 a month assuming a $200k downpayment. So the owner is probably taking a double whammy in terms of holding fast in a declining market along with losing money each month. If I had any sympathy for flippers, I might actually feel bad for this guy.
Update: This as relisted on October 10th, for $998k (no surprise there). It went into escrow five days later. If the potential buyer offered anything near full asking price, I wonder what their reaction will be to getting the history on this place? I'm looking forward to seeing how this one plays out.
MLS: 2706902
This is a perfectly nice house, in a decent neighborhood. But it's just not selling. When you look into the story, things get interesting. The house sold in July, 2005 for $620k. The owner tore it down and built the new 2 story home in the photo. Nine months later, they put it back on the market at $1.2M. The house is quite nice, it has a beautiful kitchen, granite all over the place, and nice decks. Many of the rooms are rather small though.
Here's the history:
MLS: 2511621, July 10, 2005 SOLD $620,000
MLS: 2607306 (on market for 61 days, no price changes, withdrawn)
April 14, 2006 Active $1,200,000
June 13, 2006 Withdrawn
MLS: 2611222 (on market for 120 days, expired)
June 12, 2006 Active $1,199,000
July 3, 2006 Price $1,199,000 $1,139,000
July 20, 2006 Price $1,139,000 $1,099,000
August 9, 2006 Price $1,099,000 $1,049,000
September 5, 2006 Price $1,049,000 $999,000
October 11, 2006 Status Expired
MLS: 2706902 (current listing, on market for 157 days, no price change)
April 9, 2007 Active $998,000
Now this house has been on the market for a total of 330+ days, not counting the 6 month break in between the most recent listing and the prior one. Given the flipper has been holding fast to $998k for almost a year, I'm guessing he's at the break-even point. To go any lower likely means taking a loss.
If the assumption is correct, the flipper is likely facing a hefty monthly payment. At purchase time, interest rates were ~5.5%. To make the math easy, we'll assume one loan at 5.5% instead of factoring in a possible construction loan or 2nd mortgage. Even if they put down 20% of the final $1M (unlikely), they're looking at a monthly outlay of $4542/mo + 315/mo in taxes = $4857.
If they financed it all back in the day of easy credit, they're looking at $5,678/month + taxes = $5993. The house is currently rented at $4100, so they're looking at a ~$1900 loss per month at full financing or $757 a month assuming a $200k downpayment. So the owner is probably taking a double whammy in terms of holding fast in a declining market along with losing money each month. If I had any sympathy for flippers, I might actually feel bad for this guy.
Update: This as relisted on October 10th, for $998k (no surprise there). It went into escrow five days later. If the potential buyer offered anything near full asking price, I wonder what their reaction will be to getting the history on this place? I'm looking forward to seeing how this one plays out.
A different strategy
1179 Kahili St
MLS: 2711506
Living Area: 2,474
Land: 10,356
Beds: 4
Baths: 2
Occupancy: Owner
Price:$1,100,000
If you want to distinguish yourself, you need to do something different. Apparently this owner took this train of thought to a new location:
June 14, 2006, 12:48 pm
Status Not Listed Active
August 30, 2006, 11:07 am
Price $950,000 $1,100,000
February 23, 2007, 10:01 am
Price $1,100,000 $1,200,000
June 15, 2007, 12:01 am
Status Active Expired
That's right, they RAISED the price, not once, but twice! "If it didn't work the first time, surely we didn't raise it enough!"
After it expired, it was relisted the same day at 1.2M. They lowered it to 1.1M on August 27th. I'd love to know the thought process here.
Here's the description, copied and pasted, typos are not from me:
LAKE FRONT, LARGE HOME, 10,356 LOT. WITH INTERIOR ABOUT 2,474 SQ FT. NEW KITCHEN,NEW BATHROOMS, NEW FLOORS,NEW WOOD DECK (WHICH YOU CAN SEE FROM KUKILAKILA).THERE ARE 4 BEDROOMS, AND ONE IS NEAR THE KITCHEN WITH SLIDING DOOR TO OUTSIDE, WHICH COULD BE AN OFFICE. THERE IS PLENTY OF ROOM FOR FORMAL AND INFORMAL DINNING,WITH A VIEW TOWARDS TROPICAL GARDENS. LOOK FOR THE NEW IRON DOOR.2 WATER HEATER
I just love reading in all caps, don't you? I would think a realtor hoping to sell at over a million dollars would do a little proofreading, I mean "dinning" or "2 water heater?"
On a side note, just how many pictures of one room do we need? No bathrooms, no bedrooms, but we know exactly what the living room looks like.
Update (1/17/08):
Still on the market. Same MLS, description, and price (1.1M). The update is that this house is now on craigslist as a rental.
MLS: 2711506
Living Area: 2,474
Land: 10,356
Beds: 4
Baths: 2
Occupancy: Owner
Price:$1,100,000
If you want to distinguish yourself, you need to do something different. Apparently this owner took this train of thought to a new location:
June 14, 2006, 12:48 pm
Status Not Listed Active
August 30, 2006, 11:07 am
Price $950,000 $1,100,000
February 23, 2007, 10:01 am
Price $1,100,000 $1,200,000
June 15, 2007, 12:01 am
Status Active Expired
That's right, they RAISED the price, not once, but twice! "If it didn't work the first time, surely we didn't raise it enough!"
After it expired, it was relisted the same day at 1.2M. They lowered it to 1.1M on August 27th. I'd love to know the thought process here.
Here's the description, copied and pasted, typos are not from me:
LAKE FRONT, LARGE HOME, 10,356 LOT. WITH INTERIOR ABOUT 2,474 SQ FT. NEW KITCHEN,NEW BATHROOMS, NEW FLOORS,NEW WOOD DECK (WHICH YOU CAN SEE FROM KUKILAKILA).THERE ARE 4 BEDROOMS, AND ONE IS NEAR THE KITCHEN WITH SLIDING DOOR TO OUTSIDE, WHICH COULD BE AN OFFICE. THERE IS PLENTY OF ROOM FOR FORMAL AND INFORMAL DINNING,WITH A VIEW TOWARDS TROPICAL GARDENS. LOOK FOR THE NEW IRON DOOR.2 WATER HEATER
I just love reading in all caps, don't you? I would think a realtor hoping to sell at over a million dollars would do a little proofreading, I mean "dinning" or "2 water heater?"
On a side note, just how many pictures of one room do we need? No bathrooms, no bedrooms, but we know exactly what the living room looks like.
Update (1/17/08):
Still on the market. Same MLS, description, and price (1.1M). The update is that this house is now on craigslist as a rental.
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
That extra 1k makes all the difference
1443 Kiukee Pl
This looks like a perfectly lovely house. But for 1.35 million, I don't expect a 4,338 sq.ft. lot, or tile countertops. Maybe that's just me. Perhaps they realized the price was a little high, so they knocked off a thousand. That's right, ONE thousand, or .07%. Surely that one thousand is what's keeping the buyers away.
Update (Sept 7th):
Price lowered to $1,299,000.
Update #2 (Sept 11th):
Price lowered to $1,229,000.
This looks like a perfectly lovely house. But for 1.35 million, I don't expect a 4,338 sq.ft. lot, or tile countertops. Maybe that's just me. Perhaps they realized the price was a little high, so they knocked off a thousand. That's right, ONE thousand, or .07%. Surely that one thousand is what's keeping the buyers away.
Update (Sept 7th):
Price lowered to $1,299,000.
Update #2 (Sept 11th):
Price lowered to $1,229,000.
The beginning
This is meant to record my experiences in looking for a house in Kailua, Hawaii. Unfortunately for me, it's one of the most expensive areas on the island, but DH and I are both born and raised here, it's home, and where we want to stay.
About a month ago, we started looking at houses to get a feel for the market. We aren't ready to buy yet, but it's been fascinating watching what's happening in the mortgage and housing market. Along the way, we've seen a good bit of absurdity which I thought I'd share. Enjoy!
About a month ago, we started looking at houses to get a feel for the market. We aren't ready to buy yet, but it's been fascinating watching what's happening in the mortgage and housing market. Along the way, we've seen a good bit of absurdity which I thought I'd share. Enjoy!
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